Will Work for Game Time

“Change is the only constant” – Heraclitus of Ephesus, (c.535 BC – 475 BC)

A heck of a long time ago (I will let you get out the calculator and figure it out exactly) a Greek Philosopher pretty much had an issue sussed that the rest of us have been struggling with ever since.  But that’s the thing about philosophers isn’t it? They usually have the luxury of sitting around philosphizing about life all day long while the rest of us are forced to live it.  That is perhaps why the street-wise philosphies of people like Studs Terkel get discussed  a lot more than barely pronounceable names that rarely go tripping off the tongues of anyone other than PHDs in ivy covered towers.  And before the PHDs out there attack me yes I understand that some PHDs, such as those in areas like ichthyology, are very useful. (Side note: If you doubt whether or not ichthyology is useful, ask the people trying to clean up this mess, and livelihoods it is likely to destroy).

Another interesting aspect of change is that most of the time it seems like the only people who don’t have a problem  with it (other than those who started the change in the first place) are those people who have the time to sit around philosophizing about it.

So its not surprising to me that when Turbine “sprung” it’s free-2-play Lord of the Rings Online (Lotro) business model on everyone (after all it was a likely event one day anyway) that it has stirred up the proverbial kettle.  Typical are the heated opinions espoused by Keen of Keen and Graev (one of our most reads) and Arwulf (also on our news feed I might add).

The major point to be made here is that like it or hate it, Lotro’s free-2-play business model isn’t going to go away unless anyone other than Mr. Jeff Junge decides he doesn’t like it.

Now personally, if the last No Prisoners, No Mercy article on the issue didn’t make it apparent, our (and here I am placing myself in the risky position of speaking for the entire NPNM team) opinion is that Lotro lifetime subscribers come out of the deal smelling not just like a rose, but more like a truckload of roses.  What is more important to remember is is just who is holding the purse strings.  For those one or two of you who aren’t aware of the recent purchase of Turbine by Warner Brothers, now you know.  Now keep in mind that Warner Brothers is in turn owned by Time Warner, inc. – the second largest entertainment conglomerate in the world. And that, my friends, makes the people who own Lord of the Rings Online one big mama jama.

Now the thing about companies that are big mama jama’s is that they didn’t start out that way.  Oh true, some were simply in the right place at the right time.  More often than not, however, they clawed their way to the top, often over the piles of dead competitors.

It is at this point I will invoke the wisdom of Solomon.  Many have heard of the time two women came before Solomon, both claiming to be the mother of the same child.  Solomon, being the wise prophet that he was (and here note that I mean every wordof that last sentence) ordered the child divided in two, one half given to each woman.  When one of the two women asked the wise Solomon to spare the child’s life, the prophet knew instantly who really was the child’s mother and loved him.

I told you that to tell you this.

Think of Lotro as the child in question, and Time Warner as the prophet.   Lotro is brought before Time Warner who must decide what to do with it.  How do we continue to assure its viability? Do we find a way to make it live? Or do we take the more extreme (and as anyone who knows business can tell you more likely) route of simply “killing” the business by selling off what we can and cut our losses.

Time Warner looks at Lotro and says there are two decisions:

Option 1:   Make the game free-2-play:  No, it won’t be popular, and like as not will be seen as many in the community (and oddly enough including those who don’t play the game) as a travesty.  In fact my own knee-jerk reaction was the same way (albeit it lasted about one whole minute).  This change will, in all probability, continue to ensure that Lotro will continue to be seen as an asset by Time Warner, and not a liability to be cut loose.

Option 2:  Milk the Lotro for all it’s worth. Once it passes the break even point, shut down the servers, sell off any capital assets and forget about it. And as I pointed out, THIS is how things are usually done in the business world.

So, ask yourself then. If you were the CEO of Time Warner, and you could wake up in the morning and could make the decision above, which would you chose? Then ask yourself which one most likely reflects someone who really cares about the product that so many have spent so much time working on?

As for me I look at it this way.  First, it certainly seems to me that Lotro’s new business model lives up to the contractual liability of the sale of “lifetime” subscriptions…and then some. But what of the advent of free-to-play games as a whole? Say what you will, in an economy when everyone (and I mean everyone) has less disposable income it is a boon. Think of it this way: with the advent of free-to-play games you will never be in the position of having to stand on a street corner with a sign that says “will work for game time.”

See you online (in Lord of the Rings Online)

Julie Whitefeather

*edit* 

I think one of the more interesting articles on the issue (other than mine of course) is this one over at A Ding World.