Money to Burn

“Their reasoning made sense, until Richard Garriott announced he was going to be making an Online Poker Game. Geez oh man, the last time I saw a career switch that crazy, Michael Jordan was trying to snag fly balls out in center field.” – Vercarrion

Not so open arms

Just this morning we received a lengthy missive by a reader (and perhaps listener) who goes by the name Vercarrion. You can read the entire letter here which was posted as a response to our article One Big Bandwagon. Vercarrion, it seems, has been “huffing and puffing like a grampus” (a line from the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead), distraught over the ever growing spate of social games.  Some of the issues that are raised by this distraught, old school gamer, are interesting in themselves, revealing much about those among us who are not quite happy about this new direction the industry seems to be taking.

“Is it no longer just about making great games? Isn’t that supposed to be what its all about? I realize traditional MMOs take boat loads of money and countless hours to make, but at the end of the day, wouldn’t Richard Garriott be better off designing a rich world like Ultima Online than rehashing Ultimate Poker? Does he really believe this is the exciting future he was destined for?  Along those lines, do you think Disney makes this genre viable in the long term? If so, how would it impact your passion and/or interest for the genre?” – Vercarrion

Anti-social butterfly

Like it, love it or hate it, the social game fad seems to have become a tsunami gaining strength as it heads up the beach toward what developers and publishers alike seem to feel are the waiting arms (and wallets) of adoring customers. Ironically, as anyone knows who has played both MMOs and Facebook games, saying Facebook games are “social” makes as much sense as claiming a prisoner in solitary confinement has an active social life because he sees a pair of hands slide his meal to him through a slot in bottom of the door three times a day.  Play Mafia Wars and the only contact you have with other players is a perusal of the aftermath of an attack by another player done when you log back on. There is also the possibility that Facebook fans consider the avalanche of “gifts” from other players, often for games they don’t play, a form of socialization.  The comparison that strikes me is that this would be like looking forward to dealing with the spam that inundates our website on an hourly basis. Color me callous if you will, but this doesn’t exactly strike me as being the epitome of all that goes in to the making of a social butterfly.

Work Hard – Strike Oil

“No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success or ‘get rich’ in business by being a conformist.” – J. Paul Getty

Two quotes spring to mind at this point. The first is by J. Paul Getty, famous oil billionaire of days gone by (back before companies with initials like B.P. started destroying the fishing industry and the environment wholesale). The bandwagon may be big enough to hold the Chicago Symphony Orchestra with plenty of room to spare, but that doesn’t mean that it’s headed in the right direction.  The song that starts playing in my mind at times like these is Smuggler’s Blues, by Glen Frey…
“There’s lots of shady characters, lots of dirty deals. Every name’s an alias in case somebody squeals. It’s the lure of easy money; it’s got a very strong appeal.” – Smuggler’s Blues, by Glen Frey

One of the standard plot devices in literature (and usually a trite one) is the character with a get rich scheme. Ralph Kramden was in constant pursuit of the easy dollar on the Honeymooners , Oscar from Shark Tales  announces his scheme when he exclaims “bottled water” (which apparently fish aren’t short on). Real world equivalents exist of course (I know at least one such individual) – but they would not persist unless every now and then someone, somewhere really was in the right place at just the right time.  J. Paul Getty offered this advice for success…

“Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” – J. Paul Getty

Open the newspaper (or news feed) on any day and you will find a story of someone who actually has caught the carrot they were chasing after, causing everyone else to run all the faster. It may simply be that those making the decisions, the people with their fingers on the dollars and their ass on the line, don’t want to be left behind. Such is the fear represented by Richard Garriott’s quote…“either participate and lead in this journey or get left behind.” It might be tempting to see Richard Garriott, one of the founders of the mmo industry, as being a Michael Jordan trying to break into break into baseball.  Many people, myself included, would love to see what this man could come up with if one of the determinants of success wasn’t being able to pay the bills, while ensuring that the ink used for the bottom line is black and not red.  The last time out that Mr. Garriott took a try at the brass ring was Tabula Rasa and that didn’t turn out so well.

The different drummer

At this point I haven’t checked the news feeds so I don’t know if Disney’s deal with Playdom has gone through.  Whether it has or hasn’t, it is still cause to cry “viva la difference” – and what a difference it is.  While I am indeed a fan of the mighty mouse, he isn’t necessarily King Midas. But whether the magic mouse touch turns into gold or camel dung doesn’t matter.  Media moguls can tell me what they feel I should be enjoying all they want but that doesn’t make it matter. But there are plenty of people to whom it does matter.   By way of example, to me techno music has its place on the dance floor or the back beat of a movie scene – but that’s it.  If the music industry suddenly refuses to produce anything but techno music that doesn’t mean I have to delete all my ZZtop, Aerosmith and Rolling Stones mp3 files. Call it marching to a different drummer but I endorse what I enjoy, and until the media moguls are paying my bills it doesn’t matter what they think.

Money to burn

We have all seen players (usually those who break land speed records reaching level caps) come crashing on the shores of any new game like a mighty tsunami – only to leave the developer and publishers high and dry a month or two later.  And while we can see a comparison to the race between the tortoise and the hare in the success of any mmo, with social games there is another factor involved.  In fact Scott Hartsman talked about this issue back on show 42 .  The difference between the way the media moguls at Disney  have chosen to get involved in social gaming and long time industry insiders like Richard Garriott and Brad McQuaid is found in one word…

Overhead.

If Mr. McQuaid and Mr. Hartsman develop a social game and find it isn’t popular, the development cost will be so low that it won’t matter.  But at this point both Playdom and the mighty Disney mouse have invested millions. What is worse, they are dealing in a product that is the pinnacle of luxury items.  Think of it this way – free to play/social games are so prevalent that they are like cow patties; you can’t walk through the pasture without hitting one. Publishers of social games are counting on the willingness of players (or parents of players) to spend real dollars for virtual dollars. In the case of Disney that pile of dollars would have to scrape the sky before the ink on the bottom line goes into the black.

 As the old adage goes, the bigger they are, the harder the fall and at this point the Disney has a long, long way to fall when they hit the ground – I can only assume they have money to burn.

See you online,

Julie Whitefeather

Ps. Hi to Vercarrion from everyone at the NPNM team

[posted for Julie Whitefeather by The Webmaster]