“The only reason Zynga exists is because people like EA, people like Blizzard, failed to step in…And so I think that the challenge for Blizzard, when you are that good, when you’re making that much money, when you’re that much on top of your game, in the current era, it’s actually fairly difficult to spend money towards things that seem to not be as profitable, that people don’t understand as well and that you don’t imagine could possibly beat how well you’re doing at the top of your game in the current era.” – Richard Garriott, Richard Garriott: Blizzard will have to contend with the new Zynga’s of the World, Industry Gamers

 Well it seems that if the Zyngas of the world will be the contender that brings World of Warcraft to its virtual knees it won’t actually be Zynga.  In an article over at Escapist Magzine.com  entitled “Zynga’s Profits Continue To Drop” Mike Thompson net profits were down from last year by almost 54 percent.   The point is, no matter what part of the profit and loss statement you put the most emphasis on, what matters the most is the line that says “net profit and loss before depreciation” – and in Zynga’s case a large part of the operating expenses these days seem be in Lawyers fees .

If Blizzard has anything at all to fear it’s attrition as players seem to be dropping out these days  faster than the freshman year engineering classes.  While Blizzard still has more subscribers than Switzerland has citizens Mike Morhaime (co-founder and CEO of Blizzard) who always seems to be in the right place at the right time is busy working on the next 800 pound gorilla (codenamed Titan as we are all aware). 

In the end, it appears that Richard Garriott won’t even be right for all the wrong reasons and Rob Pardo is still “THE MAN.”

See you online (for show 97 being edited now)

Julie Whitefeather

“The only reason Zynga exists is because people like EA, people like Blizzard, failed to step in…And so I think that the challenge for Blizzard, when you are that good, when you’re making that much money, when you’re that much on top of your game, in the current era, it’s actually fairly difficult to spend money towards things that seem to not be as profitable, that people don’t understand as well and that you don’t imagine could possibly beat how well you’re doing at the top of your game in the current era.” – Richard Garriott, Richard Garriott: Blizzard will have to contend with the new Zynga’s of the World, Industry Gamers

Richard Garriott is right… probably (Source).  And even if he isn’t the man has made so much money in the same industry that is currently laying off people faster than you can say “laying off people” that the industry some part of the industry may listen to him. After all, like Tevye singing “If I were a rich man” in Fiddler on the roof, when your rich people think you really know. On the other hand I heard the Bobby Kotick described as a clown shoed asshat and he is probably pulling in a lot more cash than I am.   So in the end analysis the “golden rule” – you know, the one that claims “whoever has the gold makes the rules” – isn’t necessarily true.  After all, I have met a few people with healthy amounts of cash that have their head so far up their posterior they could whistle through their belly buttons.

Still, I think Richard Garriot may be right.

On the other hand I think Keen’s observation of Dr. Richard Bartle is so far off base it isn’t even in the same town let alone the same ball park. Mostly I attribute it to not taking the time to listen to what Doctor Bartle has to say – the same unenlightened attitude I slipped into and for which I apologized to the good Doctor on the air.  And hey Keen, you will get your chance to have a good long listen to Doctor Bartle on show 100 in the coming weeks.

But as I said the first Richard, Richard Garriott, is probably right…

…but I don’t think the results are what he things they will be.  After all, this is the same man who described World of Warcraft (WoW) as “a system of inventory management”.  While he meant it with a bit of disdain, Blizzard said “yep, yep” and continued making so much money with that system it would take a team of Sherpa guides a week to reach the summit.

The right place at the right time.

That big pile of money that Blizzard made doesn’t necessarily mean they are right, it just proves they were at the right place at the right time .  When Paul Barnett was on our show he called them a “fluke of nature”.  Personally, I just think what it means is that Michael Morhaime has a sense of timing that would have made Fred Astaire green with envy. While it may be true that Blizzard didn’t step into the world of “virtual –villes” there is probably I doubt it will ever prove to be as disadvantageous as Mr. Garriott thinks it will.  Zynga was simply in the right place at the right time.  However, unlike Blizzard, I doubt Zynga’s continued success is the result of anything more than a matter of throwing enough crap only to find that some of it will eventually stick. If Blizzard will have to contend with any up and comers in the future there is very little chance that challenge will come from the Zyngas of the World (or the Portalariums for that matter).  Blizzard has expended a great deal of time making Wow more accessible to people who don’t want to make a full time career of playing a game.  While some portion of veteran gamers may see this as “dumbing down” a game, it is simply a matter of doing what Blizzard does best – appealing to ever wider audiences.

And while there are a good many of veteran WoW players out there who swear they will close down their account forever because of anthropomorphic panda people, there will probably be 4 people who love Po the Kung Fu panda out their waiting to take your place.  And as Hasbro found out long ago with Nerf, Panda’s too can be serious business.

See you online,

Julie Whitefeather

Few people can predict the future with any degree of certainly.  Every now and then someone comes along like Steve Jobs who predicts that the future is mobile application and has the power to help make it true.  As for myself, the only thing I am sure about (other than death and taxes) is the old adage – you can please some of the some of the time, but the only thing you can do all the time is piss some people off.

If you ask Disney’s CEP Bob Iger about the future of gaming he will no doubt tell you Social Gaming (read Facebook games) are here to stay. In fact he recently told Seeking Alpha (via Worlds in Motion) that Disney is shifting their assets from console games to social games.

“So, we’re going to continue to console games. They will primarily be Disney-branded, not all Disney-branded, and they will in most cases be derivative of product that’s been made for other segments of the company, like our motion pictures. So I guess, as you look at our strategy, you’d see a blend of investment and some reallocation of investment from the console side to basically this multifaceted side. Also, it became pretty clear to us that game playing and social networks is real, here to stay.” – Bob Iger, Disney CEO

Now we are certain that it has nothing to do with the fact that Disney spent over three quarters of a  billion dollars on Playdom (“563.2 million, plus performance-based earn outs of up to $200 million”)

There is no doubt, no matter what kind of games we end up playing, they will reach us through digital downloads. Even Ubisoft, infamous for their “always connected” DRM (if you disconnect from the internet while playing the game it quits) is using Steam for their release of the movie Tie-In Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (maybe they have seen the hand writing on the wall but we doubt it). Will Wright (the man who created Electronic Arts’ 800 ton single player gaming Sims series) not only agrees, but believes retail used game sales is their ticket to oblivion:

“To some extent, as the retailers come up with policies like used games, they’re actually putting their foot on the gas pedal to oblivion. And that ultimately is going to make the game industry digital about as fast as it could possibly be,” he added.” – Will Wright, gamesindustry.biz via gamespolitics.com

Mr. Wright also feels the industry is in for some evolutionary changes…

“I think we’re in the Cambrian explosion of games, where all these weird new life forms are popping out for the very first time and filling these niches that are appearing dramatically,” Says Wright. “And of course a lot of the old, established things are going to be dying off pretty rapidly, even the major life forms. But more than anything else, I see this being the healthiest thing that could happen in the industry.” – Will Wright, gamesindustry.biz via gamespolitics.com

After we interviewed Dr. Richard Bartle on No Prisoners, No Mercy Show 46 we were left with the impression that the truly innovative advances in gaming will come from the smaller studios. One look at the video below will have you believing that the future will come from a company that is now part of NCSoft – ArenaNet. Listen to the trailer below you will hear the following words:

“We founded Arena Net to Innovate, so Guild Wars 2 is our opportunity to question everything; to make a game that defies existing conventions. If you love mmos you’ll want to check out Guild Wars 2, and if you hate mmos you really want to check out Guild Wars 2. Guild Wars 2 takes everything you loved about Guild Wars 1 and puts it into a persistent world that’s got more active combat, a fully branching personalized storyline, a new event system to get people playing together and still no monthly fees.”

What? Can it be true? All that and no monthly fees? Not even microtransactions? It sounds fantastic until it reaches the following words:

“As a structure the mmo has lost the ability to make a player feel like a hero. Everything around you is doing the same thing you are doing. The boss you just killed respawns ten minutes later. It doesn’t care that I’m there.”

“We do not want to build the same mmo that everyone else is building. In Guild wars 2 it’s your world, it’s your story. You affect things around you in a very permanent way.”

Wait. Did the woman on that video say PERMANENT? You bet she did.  The first thing I thought about is the first thing Keen from Keen and Graevs’ Gaming Blog pointed out  and that is the very structure of Guild wars 1, where the entire world is instanced except for the cities.   It is this very characteristic that dulled the appeal of Guild Wars for me.  At first I doubted their ability to do all the trailer promises and still not be instanced. Then I thought about the phased technology that Blizzard used in Northrend. This is the technology that allows the same persistent world appear different to two players depending on where they are in a story line. Will Guild wars 2 make use of a similar technology?

We here at NPNM really want to give ArenaNet the benefit of the doubt. 

Then I remember that ArenaNet is a studio that is owned by NCSoft. Suddenly names like Auto Assault (closed 2007), Tabula Rasa (closed 2009), and Dungeon Runners (closed 2010) comes to mind. This is the same company that was sued by Richard Garriott for $28 million dollars because they waited until he was in quarantine after his space flight to wrongfully terminate him. 

Then I read this article by Gordon over at We Fly Spitfires. When I got part way through the article, this paragraph grabbed my attention:

“Unfortunately I’ve seen and heard a lot of these sorts of claims before. Funcom was going to revolutionize combat and we got a couple of combo buttons. Sigil was going to revolutionize factions and diplomacy and we got an in-built card game. Blizzard was going to revolutionize questing and we got floating exclamation marks. Mythic was going to revolutionize PvP and we got battlegrounds queueable from anywhere. Not that any of these mechanics aren’t fun or good in their own right, it’s just they’re hardly turning the entire genre on its head. It’s evolution through tiny footsteps, not giant leaps.” – Gordon, We Fly Spitfires

Nobody is saying that Guild wars 2 will fail.  If ArenaNet can deliver on their promises they really can set the industry on its ear.  Still I can’t help reminiscing on all the wonders of gaming that Paul Barnett promised us when he was the front man for Warhammer Online – yes it is still there but not exactly going strong is it? If ArenaNet doesn’t deliver, these are the words that will come back to haunt them:

“…and puts it into a persistent world”

But if they do deliver…yes dear readers if they DO deliver, then there is little doubt that we will all be looking back on the days when we USED to play mmos the old fashioned way, and Guild Wars 2 will be up there with the rare air.

See you online,

Julie Whitefeather

update:

Our own Sister Julie had questions about ArenaNet’s Dynamic Events System vs. Public Quests as we all saw in Warhammer Online.  It seems Randomessa has done a detailed examination of the public quest issue here. I don’t have a ruler to wave around but it is a detailed analysis of claims versus performance to be sure.

[posted for Julie Whitefeather by The Webmaster]

He is one of my favorite Star Trek Villains. He’s the man that everyone loves to hate – none other than the man himself, Khan.  Most people who read this site and listen to our show will remember the moment when the Shakespeare quoting villain says “Revenge is a dish best served cold, and it is very cold in space.”

For those of you who Richard Garriott aka Lord British aka Admiral British, the man who brought us Ultima Online and Tabula Rasa, was issued stock options valid through May 30, 2011 as part of his tenure at NCSoft. When Richard took a leave of absence from NCSoft, someone at the company that brought us Aion thought they would pull a Slick Willy…

NCsoft waited until Garriott’s post flight quarantine after his famous trip about the Russian Soyuz spacecraft and canned him.  The problem is, they told the world that he had quit voluntarily, that activating a clause in his contract that caused his stock options to expire in the event Garriott left NCSoft of his own accord.

Now Richard Garriott has had his day in court, and the courts agreed.

Lord British is now 28 million dollars richer (o.k. he will be when NCSoft pays up).  Let’s hope this means that Lord British will consider exercising that tremendous talent of his and bring us something other than a poker game from his new company Portalarium. And yes, before you ask, I still long for the good old days of Ultima Online.  One of the biggest disappointments was when the UO2 project was cancelled.

See you online

Julie Whitefeather

[posted for Julie Whitefeather by The Webmaster]

One of the articles that recently caught my attention was the new one over at Gamasutra featuring none other than Richard  Garriottt .  However it is not the fact that Richard Garriott and his company Portalarium are getting into social gaming (i.e. Facebook Applications) that I thought was interesting.  Rather it was some of the comments he made about the subject:

“So, I believe the casual gamer and the social gaming platform represent the largest ever yet seen emergence or change within the gaming industry. And all of us in the development community have a choice to either participate and lead in this journey or get left behind.” – Richard Garriott

“most dialogue in most games are you’re told to go to location A, you might find some monsters on the way to location A, but there’s nothing relevant story-wise to your growth as an individual is going to happen on your way to location A, and when you get to location A, there’s generally one real outcome, which is go to location B.

And I don’t care how good a storyteller you are, that’s never going to be very interesting. You’re never going to feel like you’ve really participated in a truly meaningful way unless you discover things on the journey from A to B, and also when you do get to A and meet that person and have dialogue with, some form of discourse with, that it again has some outcome that for you will be unexpected, as often is not.” – Richard Garriott

Mind you I will always be a big Richard Garriott fan, even if he never returns our messages.  Still, the first thing I ask myself is whether or not Mr. Garriott is correct in his assumption that game developers and publishers who don’t involve themselves and their companies in social gaming will quickly be left behind. After all, the last time I bought off on his assumptions concerning the future of the gaming industry he was calling Blizzard’s “system of inventory management” the “harbinger of failure”. Still, there is a lot to be said for what he says about adding meaning to gaming development beyond simply “go from point a to b and kill monster c”.   In fact right now “state of the art” social games aren’t even that involving.

But what if developers where to add in a good story. What if there were more to social games than “do you want to click button a or b” and wait for a mathmatical formula to tell you if you are the new mafia don, or if your potatoe  crop will be ready for harvesting now or five minutes from now? What if a social game actually told a story? What if I could log on to facebook, create a character and become part of an epic story arch that would grab my imagination? Perhaps the decisions I made wouldn’t simply go from point a to point b but instead branch out to myriad outcomes?

Sounds great doesn’t it?

Would you spend a few bucks to play such a game? I know I would. But wait. I seem to have heard about that sort of game before. What was it called?  Oh yes, it was called…

Multi-User Dungeon

…and Dr. Richard Bartle pioneered it along with Roy Trubshaw.  Apply the same principles as M.U.D. to a facebook application? Perhaps that is a new and inovative idea. Grandma, on the other hand, would have simply said “the more things change the more they remain the same.” Whatever the outcome, and whatever the direction the gaming industry takes, while social gaming may be a new trend, I seriously doubt that any publisher who choses not to partake will consider themselves “left behind.” Time will tell. One thing is for sure, however.  The more choices gamers have, the better they have it.

See you online,

Julie Whitefeather

(posted for Julie Whitefeather by The Webmaster)